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9月金融數據前瞻:信貸投放同比多增,後續社融增速有望回升
格隆匯 10-11 10:00

本文來自格隆匯專欄:中金研究,作者:林英奇、許鴻明等

評論

預計9月信貸投放小幅同比多增。我們預計9月新增貸款約2.6萬億元(高於Wind一致預期的2.5萬億元),也小幅高於去年同期的2.5萬億元,貸款餘額增速11.0%,增速較上月下降0.1ppt。結構上,我們預計零售貸款同比多增,對公貸款高基數下或同比少增。具體而言:

1. 對公貸款方面,我們預計對公中長期貸款延續前兩個月的同比少增,主要由於銀行上半年投放力度較強,項目儲備有所消耗;瀝青開工率、高爐開工率、水泥發運率等高頻草根景氣度指標不温不火,表明9月基建貸款投放可能一般。

2. 零售貸款方面,8月以來“認房不認貸”等地產政策放鬆,二手房交易回暖,同時存量按揭降息規則落地減少提前還貸,我們預計低基數下居民中長期貸款或同比多增。

預計9月社融增速環比持平。我們預計9月新增社融約3.8萬億元(高於Wind一致預期的3.7萬億元),也高於去年同期的3.6萬億元;社融存量增速9.0%,增速與上月持平;結構上看,政府債券同比多增,主要由於專項債發行速度加快;委託貸款同比少增,主要由於去年同期政策行基數較高;預計人民幣貸款增速基本持平。

後續社融增速有望回升。向前看,我們預計存量按揭利率下調有望減少早償,特殊再融資債券也有望在四季度發行,我們預計到年底社融及貸款增速回升。

風險:經濟恢復不及預期,房地產和地方隱性債務風險。

圖表1:9月票據貼現利率回升

資料來源:Wind,中金公司研究部

圖表2:9月票據利率上行

資料來源:Wind,中金公司研究部

圖表3:9月貸款基數水平較高

資料來源:Wind,中金公司研究部

圖表4:9月企業中長期貸款基數較高

資料來源:Wind,中金公司研究部

圖表5:9月社融基數較高

資料來源:Wind,中金公司研究部

圖表6:9月政府債券基數較低

資料來源:Wind,中金公司研究部

圖表7:9月草根景氣度指標不温不火(1/2)

資料來源:Wind,百年建築,中金公司研究部

圖表8:9月草根景氣度指標不温不火(2/2)

資料來源:Wind,百年建築,中金公司研究部

圖表9:9月主要城市新房二手房成交面積仍低於去年同期

資料來源:Wind,中金公司研究部

注:本文來自中金公司2023年10月11日已經發布的《9月金融數據前瞻》,報吿分析師:林英奇 SAC 執證編號:S0080521090006;SFC CE Ref:BGP853;許鴻明 SAC 執證編號:S0080523080007;周基明 SAC 執證編號:S0080521090005;SFC CE Ref:BTM336;張帥帥 SAC 執證編號:S0080516060001;SFC CE Ref:BHQ055

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