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《大行報告》招商證券下調小鵬(09868.HK)目標價至96元 評級「增持」
招商證券發表研究報告指出,小鵬(09868.HK)第二季收入50.6億元人民幣,按年跌31.9%,按季升25.5%,交付2.3萬輛,按年跌32.6%,按季升27.3%,淨虧損28億元人民幣,去年同期虧損27億元人民幣,今年首季虧損23.4億元人民幣。 該行指出,小鵬G6因Max版智能化零件前期準備不足導致當前產能受限。該行預計公司內部改革成效及G6極高的市場認可度將提振供應商的信心,8至10月產銷量將逐步提升。根據管理層指引,公司第四季將實現G6單月交付量破萬,總交付量衝擊2萬輛。此外,公司在下半年將進一步加大渠道改革力度,對現有銷售網絡進行大幅度優勝劣汰,提升門店營運效率、降低營銷成本。同時公司計劃引入更多優秀經銷商以推動渠道下沈,擴大二線及低線城市市場覆蓋率。 此外,該行預計小鵬在G6交付量持續增長以及渠道營運效率不斷提升的推動下,公司第四季毛利率有望轉正,下半年實現經營現金流轉正。根據管理層指引,公司目標2024年實現自由現金流轉正,最早在2025年實現盈虧平衡。 該行認為,小鵬上半年業績欠佳但也是市場預期之內,預計第三及第四季公司基本面持續邊際改善,維持公司是新勢力彈性最大標的判斷。該行維持對公司盈利預測不變,對小鵬港股目標價由130元下調至96元,料行業競爭觸發板塊估值壓力,評級「增持」。
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