《大行報告》中金:內地6月新屋銷售跌三成 料下半年延續「弱復甦,強分化」趨勢
中金發表內房行業報告表示,內地6月新房銷售按年下降約三成,二手房按年持平略增。6月15個樣本城市二手房銷售面積按月降約一成,按年增幅收窄至升6%(5月升53%);同期,58個樣本城市新房銷售面積按月增約一成,按年轉跌至-26%(5月升12%),其中6月下旬以來受重點城市推盤量上升影響,新房銷售按月改善明顯,該行認為該趨勢或仍將延續1至2周。
向前看,考慮到上半年土地成交量在低基數上按年仍降近三成,預計下半年庫存水平不高的超高/高能級城市銷售表現或仍在一定程度上受推盤供應制約,但佔全國銷售面積主體的中低能級城市的銷售表現,仍取決於需求端居民預期的企穩節奏。整體上,該行認為下半年地產基本面將延續「弱復甦,強分化」趨勢,政策重心短期或仍優先供給側「保交樓」和支持合理融資。
該行表示,考慮到合理的行業政策支持和基本面弱復甦態勢,認為短期內市場將持續博弈基本面恢復與政策預期,年內偏弱啤打下區間震蕩行情或延續;另一方面,考慮到當前市場環境下個體經營分化仍在加劇,中金提示選股需更加自下而上關注各房企當前土儲質量,以及當期銷售增速、拿地強度等經營指標,推薦有望優先受益於局地復甦和供給側改革之股份,並兼顧具備強防御性的高息股。內房港股推薦中國海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、建發國際(01908.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)、中國海外宏洋(00081.HK),及高股息的恆隆地產(00101.HK)。
物管股方面,中金推薦保利物業(06049.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)、萬物雲(02602.HK)、華潤萬像生活(01209.HK);代建板塊方面,上週綠城管理控股(09979.HK)上漲5%,該行堅定看好公司為房地產行業變革中的重點受益者。
中金引述6月克而瑞百強房企銷售數據,面積、金額按月均增長10%,銷售面積按年跌幅走闊至-38%(5月-13%),銷售金額按年轉負至-28%(5月+6%);2023上半年百強房企銷售面積和金額累計按年下降14%和持平(今年首五個月為-7%和+8%)。(wl/u)
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