《大行報告》野村:招行(03968.HK)為內銀首選 工行(01398.HK)及建行(00939.HK)股息及估值吸引
野村發表研究報告指出,在政策寬鬆的情況下,中國貸款增長料可保持基本穩定,雖然2月份的信貸數據令人失望,但該行仍維持對其所覆蓋銀行於2022財年的新增貸款穩定增長的預期,尤其是基建、普惠金融及綠色信貸方面,因最近中國疫情惡化局勢可能令人行加大寬鬆力度。該行料其所覆蓋銀行的平均貸款增長,由2021財年的12.1%,略放緩至2022財年的11.7%。
此外,考慮到最近的人行下調貸款市場報價利率,該行估計銀行的淨息差於2022財年持續受壓。由於高基數效應和股市波動性,銀行非利息收入增長將暫時放緩,料2022財年平均按年增長7%。儘管2022財年不良貸款比率或溫和上升,但質量風險可控。
野村認為,在其所覆蓋的銀行中,重申招行(03968.HK)為行業首選,因為其高質量的特許經營權,評級「買入」(見另表)。國企銀行方面,該行目前看好工行(01398.HK)及建行(00939.HK),主要由於股息率更吸引,分別為7.8%及7.7%,以及估值吸引,評級皆為「買入」。
當中,野村將工行的2022及2023財年純利預測上調1.6%及0.8%,信貸成本下調4點子及18點子,以反映其2021財年資產質量改善勝預期。同時亦將建行2022及2023財年純利預測上調0.8%及1.5%,反映其信貸成本下降及貸款增長更高。
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