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鋰電、電動車,雪崩時刻
格隆匯 03-08 13:50

如果把股市也看成一個戰場,現在行情的血腥度,比起俄烏戰場,有過之而無不及。

特別是新能源板塊。

有多慘烈?

贛鋒、天齊這對鋰電雙寡頭,股價一度接近跌停。

贛鋒股價走勢

來源:富途

天齊股價走勢

來源:富途

電動車同樣哀鴻遍野,幾大巨頭公司,比亞迪、小鵬、理想,跌幅也都非常大。雖然午後在寧王翻紅的帶動下有所回升,但看股價和交投情況,頹勢仍然很明顯。

作為去年最為耀眼的板塊,鋰電、電動車賺足了眼球,資金的瘋狂程度,可以把一個虧損公司市值翻數倍,而且這還不止是在中國市場,一向以理性著稱的美國市場同樣如此。Rivian、Lucid的股價漲勢甚至超過中國新勢力。

也正因為,資金瘋狂的抬升,使得股價漲幅明顯超出常識,估值就更不用説了。

還是那句老話,一切大跌的原罪,都和高估值撇不清關係。

當然,也有不少人質疑,如果要説高峯期,鋰電早在去年9月份就已經出現,電動車在去年年末也出現過,至今股價已經回調很大,30%、40%甚至乎腰斬,都不在少數,為何還在繼續下探,到底何日是個盡頭?

沒有錯,單看高峯期的股價,確實已經回調很多,但如果你看長一點,就會發現,這些公司股價此前可能是上漲了10倍、20倍,現在腰斬,跌幅很大嗎?

如果和低點相比,那也是足足上漲5倍,而且這些公司,尤其是鋰電產業鏈,大多數都是週期股,週期上升期可以衝上天,週期下行期當然可以跌落地。

正如那句名言:雪崩的時候,沒有一片雪花是無辜的。

因為當初正是這些雪花無休止地疊加,最終造成今天的雪崩。

鋰電、電動車後市怎麼看?

如果從估值角度出發,下跌還遠沒有結束;如果從週期出發,下跌的趨勢還會延續;如果從市場情緒出發,下跌還將繼續。

總之,在現在的市場情緒下,高估值板塊是最先也是最容易受到衝擊的板塊,原因?

無他,就是因為你估值太高,地主家餘糧多,不干你幹誰?

從行業最初也是最底層的發展動力來看,其實都是政策吹出來的,具體説就是國家的碳中和戰略,正因為有政策護航,所以市場可以無限制的透支未來,還記得那個把寧王用2060年來算業績和估值的研報嗎?

現在,如果還有人拿政策説話,我建議他看看下面這段話。

資本市場是一個強調故事和理性的地方,你可以講故事,也可以很理性,對於普通投資者來説,最難分辨的,就是到底什麼時候該講故事,什麼時候該理性,該講故事的時候理性,該理性的時候相信故事,和本末倒置、顛倒是非沒什麼分別。

不過,可以肯定的是,現在這個時候,絕非講故事的時候。

對於未來幾個月鋰電、電動車的走勢,可能會反彈,而且大跌後反彈力度還可能會很大,但趨勢既然是向下,與其想着抄底博那麼點反彈,倒不如隔岸觀火,等“仗”打完再説。

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