《大行報告》摩通降阿裏(09988.HK)目標價至205元 內地電商業務進入轉型階段
摩根大通發表研究報告,指阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)上季度業績令該行感驚訝,因消費放緩及密集投資下,內地電商收入及集團純利遜預期。該行認爲現時消費疲弱是週期性,公司投資策略轉變則屬結構性
該行預期,阿裏內地電商業務將進入爲期數年的轉型階段,屆時盈利增長轉慢、以及投資密集度高等,過去數年已在內地電商市場創新發展上加快投資。不過在集團角度,部分早期投資,如雲業務、金融科技及物流等,將開始進入收成,未來數年料顯着驅動股價。在交易角度而言,與百度(09888.HK)相似,未來數年股價或受制於轉型階段市場對其較低估值,以及受中國以外市場電商業務發展所影響。
該行下調阿裏2022財年下半年及2023財年經調整每股盈測分別10%及14%,相信在偏遠城市投資及新零售業務模式需要多年經營付出。有關投資或多年後才見財政回報,但認爲平臺人流及參與度將是投資回報率的估值標準。在集團層面,摩通料阿裏2022財年經調整每股盈利按年跌15%,2023財年恢復至正增長12%,2024財年增長更料加快至22%。該行對阿裏H股目標價由250元降至205元,評級「增持」。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.