You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行報告》花旗下調中國今年第四季GDP增長預測至4% 降全年預測至8.1%
阿思達克 10-26 14:37
花旗發表報告,將中國第四季經濟增長下調0.5個百分點至4%,全年經濟按年增長8.1%(原本8.2%)。在沒有全面刺激政策下,預計中央定向政策會加強。該行認為,中國正步入短期滯脹,該行分析顯示在正常天氣狀況下,中國需要在第四季減少12%工業用電量,工業增加值將在第四季放緩至按年增長約3.2%,工業品供應短缺及價格上漲,將拖累出口和投資表現。 花旗認為,房地產市場急速下降,令投資額表現不會有強勁表現,PPI與CPI分化擴大,壓縮企業盈利,令中下游製造商對資本擴張卻步。此外,近期監管問題也削弱私人投資意欲。花旗表示,公共衛生風險阻礙服務業的恢復,監管收緊也讓居民減少在教育、醫療等服務開支。 花旗說,對房地產行業需要有更廣泛的流動性支持,才能阻止恆大(03333.HK)債務風險擴大。該行預計,當冬天後供應鏈壓力緩解後,預計中央會有更多政策紓緩房地產行業引致的下行,預計中央會在明年減息25個基點。另外,花旗認為在貿易順差和外資流入支持下,人民幣在年底升值至每6.4人民幣兌一美元,不過監管環境不確定性和恆大問題,以及美聯儲政策正常化較預期快的風險,將為人民幣匯價帶來負面投資氣氛。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account