《大行報告》瑞銀料內房物業交付和再融資憂慮加劇 目前銀行系統風險可控
瑞銀發表報告表示,認為中國恆大(03333.HK)存在償還債務困難的問題,從社會穩定角度來看,相信物業項目交付將為當局未來首要目標,預期其中一種可行方法是將項目公司與集團分離,以確保現金流僅用於項目建設,令資產價值得以實現。同時該行預計,恆大或將需要進行債務重組並削減開支。
對於內房行業,該行預計市場對其他開發商的物業交付及再融資憂慮將會增加,估計有10家開發商有潛在風險,涉及合約銷售額共約1.86萬億人民幣,為恆大規模的約2.7倍。
瑞銀指,與內地銀行溝通後得知,截至上半年恆大的貸款仍被視為正常貸款。為衡量房地產開發商的潛在不良貸款風險,該行列出恆大債務違約、包括恆大在內的9家高風險房地產開發商違約,以及整個房地產行業不良貸款率上升15個百分點共三個假設情況,預期內銀整體不良貸款率將相應上升11、29及80個基點,從銀行系統角度來看將受到影響,但風險似乎可控,當中估計民生銀行(01988.HK)最受影響。
該行預測今年下半年內地房地產市場銷售將按年下降8%,新開工率下跌8%至10%,固定資產投資跌2%至3%,其中新開工量可能在未來幾個月跌超過20%,拖累中國GDP約1至2個百分點。
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