一文了解券商於阿里巴巴(09988.HK)季绩後最新观点及目标价
阿里巴巴(09988.HK)今早股价偏软，半日收215.8元微跌0.6%。该公司昨日(13日)收市后公布去年底止第三季度业绩，非通用会计准则纯利464.93亿人民币(下同)，按年升56%，高於本网早前综合8间券商预测之上限457.53亿元。公司录纯利523.09亿人民币按年升58%，亦优於市场预期。期内收入1,614.56亿元按年升38%，高於本网早前综合16间券商预测之中位数1,589.74亿元。
截至去年12月底，中国零售市场移动月活跃用户达8.24亿，按季净增长3,900万；2019年止12个月，中国零售市场年度活跃消费者7.11亿，较9月止12个月增长1,800万，其中超过60%来自欠发达地区。季内中国零售商业的收入1,104.58亿元，增长36%。云计算的季度收入按年增加62%至107.21亿元。数字媒体及媒乐季度经调整EBITA亏损同比收窄。
【季绩胜预期 忧疫情影响】
野村发表报告指，阿里巴巴上财季非通用会计准则每股盈利优预期，但核心收入略逊预期，其中最大负面意外是管理层对内地疫情潜在影响的评论，管理层料内地电商及当地消费服务收入按年会受压，因受到物流及供应链所影响。
摩根士丹利指，阿里巴巴上季度佣金收入按年升16%，较天猫网上实体货物销售成交总额24%的按年增长为慢。管理层解释称他们向策略性重要分项提供优惠，与及天猫超市收入组合改变。该行认为优惠在「双十一」等推广期的情况变得更为显着，预期在公司集中於欠发达地区下，有关情况将会持续。
报告亦引述管理层指，预期新型冠状病毒显着限制现季度收入增长，核心业务及本地生活服务收入将按年倒退。纵使消费者需求在农历新年间维持强劲，但物流产能利用率低於两成，本周逐渐回升至逾两成。该行假设整体运输产能利用率，能在2月回复至40%、及3月回复至80%，核心业务收入本季仍会按年跌8%。
【瑞信降目标 但长远看好】
瑞信下调对阿里巴巴的目标价，由284港元降至274港元，维持「跑赢大市」评级。该行认为，基於上财季业绩优预期，但同时考虑短期表现到受内地疫影响，该行仅轻微下调现财年收入及盈利预测，又指疫情影响为一次性，建议投资者集中於公司长远增长潜力。该行认为，疫情爆发推动各行业电子化，预期长远云业务有更大可能性录得逾五成增长，并更早地达到收支平衡，为公司带来价值提升。
| 券商 |
观点 |
| 高盛 |
季度非通用会计准则每股摊薄盈利高该行预期9% |
| 花旗 |
季度收入及盈利胜预期 |
| 瑞信 |
去年第四季度疲弱，但不改变长期增长趋势 |
| 瑞银 |
季绩整体符预期，但佣金收入增长放缓 |
| 野村 |
上财季核心收入稍逊预期 |
| 摩根大通 |
下调业绩预测 料短期令股价受压 |
| 大和 |
新增长点强势开始展现，但疫情影响预测超预期 |
| 摩根士丹利 |
长远受惠网购增加、变现能力改善 |
本网列出2间券商对阿里最新投资评级及目标价：
| 券商 |
投资评级 |
目标价(港元) |
| 高盛 |
买入(确信买入名单) |
277元 |
| 瑞信 |
跑赢大市 |
284元-274元 |
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
