金山软件(3888.HK)游戏波动办公和云前景相对乐观维持“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
目标价：18.7港元
核心观点
19Q2财报整体略低于预期19Q2实现收入18.74亿（+39%）和归母净利-14.15亿（其中因猎豹计提减值致其他亏损额为13.27亿）。毛利率38.1%与19Q1持平，销售费用同比+53%，主要是B端市场开拓及游戏推广加大，研发费用同比+16%。
云收入略高于预期，全年指引未变；WPS收入和运营利润低于预期，全年收入和运营利润率指引维持；游戏收入下滑，全年预计下降10%云业务：19Q2收入同比继续大幅+96%实现9.18亿，视频和互联网领域云服务用户使用量强劲增长，企业云收入快速提升；19H1云业务亏损率继续缩窄。全年收入预计同比+70%，亏损率预计大幅缩窄。
WPS：19Q2收入实现3.46亿，同比+31%，收入增速回落，19H1毛利扣销售费用和研发费用后业绩为1.52亿，同比-22.5%，主要是研发投入加大，根据金山办公最新招股书，19Q1研发费用率达47%，较18年增长显著。截至19年6月WPS月活用户3.48亿。个人订阅业务持续增长，16~18年12月及19年3月WSP付费月活分别为78万、271万、481万及570万。预计全年收入同比增长35%~40%，运营利润率维持20%+。
游戏：因《剑网3》手游不及预期，19Q2收入同比下滑2%。《剑网3》因首日技术问题影响用户体验，首月流水仅1.5亿，将于19Q4上线更新版本，其表现待验证。储备手游《最终幻想》即将上线，《剑网2》预计最早2020年3月上线，《双生视界》预计先上线日本市场。手游19年收入预计下滑10%，20年有望恢复增长。
维持“买入”评级，调整合理价值为18.7港元/股
下调游戏收入和利润，调升整体研发费用率，预计19~20年归母净利为-16.61亿元、3.14亿元。考虑WPS行业领先地位及35%~40%的收入增速，同时参考可比公司较高的PE估值，我们将WPS19年PE估值升至35倍，根据SOTP，合理价值为18.7港元/股（若考虑WPS上市后股权稀释，合理价值为17.1港元/股）。游戏波动短期影响投资情绪，办公和云前景相对乐观，WPS受益于国产化趋势，金山云受益于5G。截至19H1拥有现金及银行存款90亿元。
风险提示
老游戏流水自然回落，新游不及预期；WPS在科创板估值波动不确定，2C业务增长不及预期；云服务市场竞争导致亏损扩大。
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