大行評級|美銀:下調今年布油價格預測至70美元 下調中石油及中石化目標價
美銀髮表研究報告,因應貿易戰背景下,宏觀經濟下行風險增加,以及OPEC+將於4月起增產,相應將2025年布蘭特原油價格預測從每桶75美元下調至70美元,2026年預測維持爲每桶73美元,預期今年全球石油市場供過於求的規模將擴大至每天32萬桶(原先料每日供應過剩僅10萬桶),但相信OPEC+不太可能打價格戰。
美銀認爲,中石油天然氣業務表現強勁,令其對原油價格的盈利敏感度有所下降,經營能力具韌性,重申“買入”評級,目前預期每桶原油價格變動1美元,對其稅後淨利潤影響爲0.7%(原先料介乎1.2%至1.5%)。考慮到新油價預測和天然氣定價政策,該行將中石油2025年盈利預測下調2%至1520億元,2026年淨利潤預測維持在1530億元,H股目標價從8港元下調至7.2港元。
該行預期中石化2024年第四季業績及全年股息存在短期風險,基於估值仍給予“買入”,爲反映最新油價及燃氣價格預測,將中石化2025年盈利預測下調4%至460億元,估計該公司可能面臨短期下行風險。花旗對中石化目標價由原先5.5港元降至5港元。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.