大行評級|大摩:下調三桶油的目標價 中石油去年天然氣業務表現仍最好
摩根士丹利發表研報指,去年能源上遊業務保持穩健,人民幣貶值基本抵消油價下跌。至於天然氣價格上漲及銷售增長則支撐上遊業務的盈利成長。另外,下遊業務按年走弱的表現一如預期,中石油去年的天然氣業務表現仍然是最好。
就中石油而言,大摩下調上遊業務的營業利潤,以反映去年第四季原油價格疲弱的影響,同時也調整了布蘭特原油預測假設。然而,該行上調了天然氣營運利潤,以反映天然氣發電、工業鍋爐及農村地區煤改氣的需求優於預期,以及天然氣價格改革導致的天然氣利潤率高於預期。整體而言,該行將中石油2024及2025年的盈利預測分別下調2%及6%。大摩將中石油H股目標價由8.76港元下調至8.3港元,給予“增持”評級。
就中石化而言,大摩預計該公司將面臨比上遊公司更高的盈利壓力。故該行大幅下調對中石化的盈利預測,以反映下遊業務疲弱程度超出預期,以及去年下遊業務可能出現的重大減損損失。大摩將中石化H股目標價由5.63港元下調至4.95港元,給予“與大市同步”評級。
就中海油而言,大摩下調其石油銷售收入預測,以考慮去年第四季的油價疲弱因素,並調整對2025/26財年的油價預測。另外,該行將中海油2024財年盈利預測下調4%;2025財年預測下調1%,同時將其H股目標價相應由21.8港元下調至20.7港元,給予“增持”評級。儘管如此,該行認爲中海油仍具有良好的收益潛力。
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