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國金證券:2025年是人形機器人商業化元年
國金證券研報指出,1)Robo+是汽車賽道最強產業趨勢,比亞迪、華為宣佈入局人形機器人。分主機廠看,11—12月比亞迪、華為、小鵬、特斯拉等車企開始佈局或更新人形機器人。汽車供應鏈和機器人供應鏈從軟件到硬件、研發到銷售都高度重疊,隨着頭部公司陸續入局,人形機器人產業化將加速,robo+將成為汽車產業鏈最強產業趨勢。2)國內和特斯拉共振,國產供應鏈值得期待。國內主機廠及其供應鏈迭代效率高,海外特斯拉、Figure、Digit等人形機器人主機廠也有望放量,國內外主機廠共振將塑造出全球領先的中國供應鏈。3)龍頭公司加速入局,產業robo+趨勢加速。2022—2023年市場關注度主要集中在特斯拉鍊的不同供應鏈板塊之間輪動,如2023年6月開始的減速器板塊,2023年10—11月的絲槓和傳感器板塊;今年隨入局者增加,新增分地區、分主機廠催化,地區如川渝、安徽鏈,主機廠如華為、英偉達、賽力斯鏈,建議持續跟蹤各產業鏈龍頭,關注技術、成本、客户優勢等方面,迎接機器人大批量放量時間節點。量是人形機器人賽道的核心矛盾,中國供應鏈+海外發達國家需求(高人力成本替代)/國內特種需求是兑現最快的方向。2025年是人形機器人商業化元年,2027年是人形機器人一般場景大規模商業化元年。持續看好特斯拉、華為等人形機器人供應鏈。個股可關注:三花智控、拓普集團等。
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