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大行評級|傑富瑞:預計第三季香港新盤降價幅度可能更大 首選新地及信置

傑富瑞發表香港地產行業報吿指出,今年上半年住宅樓盤銷售比去年下半年復甦,對發展商來説屬利好因素。富瑞預計,雖然第三季新盤降價幅度可能更大,但強勁的租賃活動可支持資產收益率並吸引投資需求,繼而有助樓盤銷售。該行維持看好地產發展商股多於收租股的觀點,首選新地及信置。報吿指出,6月一手市場住宅銷售量按月降50%,至986個單位;銷售額跌55%,至126億港元。不過,上半年銷售額比去年下半年增長1.41倍,至1120億港元,按年亦錄得33%增幅,為2021年以來最高銷售額的半年。

該行認為,雖然減息仍存在不確定性,但負擔能力減弱只是週期性現象,而且樓市需求仍然健康,將支持未來住宅銷售,現金流改善可能為地產股帶來正面驚喜。該行預期,中期而言,新地的股息有上升空間,目前估值已很大程度反映利潤壓力。該行亦看好信和置業,在強勁的資產負債表下,股息可見度較高,股息率達7釐。

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