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經絡:匯豐維持最優惠利率對樓按市場相對正面 料美國最快下半年起首次減息
阿思達克 03-21 12:40
美聯儲宣布基準利率維持在5.25厘至5.5厘區間不變,連續5次維持利率不變,符合市場預期,而聯儲局最新「點陣圖」仍維持今年累計減息3次的預測。香港方面,匯豐銀行同日宣布最優惠利率(P)維持不變,保留在目前5.875%的水平。 經絡按揭轉介首席副總裁曹德明表示,美國聯邦基金利率於去年7月升至5.5厘後,橫行至今約七個月,參考2004年加息周期,聯邦基金利率於2006年7月升至5.25厘後,橫行約14個月後才於2007年9月開始減息,當時香港亦跟隨下調最優惠利率(P)。雖然美國消費者物價指數(CPI)由去年1月份6.4%反覆回落至今年2月份3.2%,但與目標2%仍有距離,現時美國就業增長依然強勁,油價以及房價指數仍高企,加上俄烏以巴等地緣政治問題,以及紅海危機令通脹前景仍存在不確定性,相信現階段減息仍不合適,聯儲局將繼續密切觀察市場、經濟狀況以及通脹走向,聯邦基金利率將於上半年維持高水平一段時間,而本港拆息(HIBOR)亦將繼續徘徊4厘半至5厘高水平一段時間,本港銀行普遍新造按揭息率將繼續維持於4.125厘水平。 對於聯署局何時才開始減息,曹德明表示,美國整體通脹情況仍是呈反覆下降趨勢,相信美聯儲視乎未來數月通脹以及勞動力市場走勢,如情況可控,料最快於下半年開始進行首次減息,屆時HIBOR有機會先跟隨回落,並反覆回調至4厘水平。而本港銀行亦會視乎多項外部因素以及自身策略而決定減息步伐,不排除於聯儲局減息後考慮先輕微下調最優惠利率(P)。息口見頂以及有望下半年減息,配合政府全面撤辣及放寬按揭措施,對現時正在復甦的樓按市場相對正面。
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