《大行報告》大摩:投資者對內地汽車行業轉趨審慎 電動車需求和政策刺激成焦點
摩根士丹利發報告指,近幾星期,投資者再次對中國汽車行業前景轉趨審慎,市場焦點在於電動車(EV)的需求和有否實質性的刺激政策出台兩方面。
市場對國家沒有提供全國性車輛舊換新補貼的實質性支持感到失望。大摩指其接觸的投資者仍然期待第2季會有全國性的刺激措施公布,預計規模達50億到250億元人民幣之間。補貼可能包括新能源車(NEV)和在部分燃油車(ICEV),以促進國內GDP增長。目前尚不清楚這些刺激措施將如何和何時實施。
此外,報告提到理想汽車(02015.HK)的H股和ADR在過去兩周分別下跌了16%和15%,表現落後於區內指數19%和17%。反映出市場對公司可於3月交付5萬輛汽車不樂觀,可能會影響首季的銷量和利潤率。然而,理想汽車迅速調整了2024年L系列車型的規格和價格,未來兩周將是公司訂單能否重拾動力的關鍵時期,可能標誌著股價的轉折點。
大摩預計第4季小鵬汽車(09868.HK)收入將略高於130億人民幣,主要是受惠於G9車型平均售價(ASP)有輕微上升。預計公司的毛利率將達到約6%,相對第三季度為負2.7%。由於研發、銷售及管理費用按季微升,預計第4季度淨虧損將介乎20億至22億人民幣。
至於比亞迪(01211.HK),大摩預計第1季度盈利介乎40億至45億人民幣,大致處於投資者預期的中間範圍內。
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