惠譽:樓按市場溫和復甦 香港銀行承受風險可控
評級機構惠譽發報告指,近期放寬住宅按揭的措施,無直接增加銀行面對的風險。放寬按揭及取消印花稅等措施,可支持樓市成交的溫和上升,更可能有助增加非香港居民及投資者的置業需求。不過,息口高企之下,加上經濟仍有不確定性,按揭貸款的增長不會太顯著。因而對香港銀行2024年的行業展望保持中性。
惠譽指香港過去的樓按限制措施,的確有效防止因樓價波動而令銀行資產質量轉差,同時有助維持極低的按揭貸款拖欠比率超過十年。儘管經歷了兩年的物業價格調整,截至2024年1月底,香港銀行住宅按揭的拖欠比率(逾期三個月以上的貸款)仍然低於0.1%。
對於金管局放寬按揭成數上限及取消按揭壓力測試要求等。惠譽認為不會使銀行所承受的風險有太大的變化,主因是銀行仍會保持嚴格的貸款標準,包括供款佔入息比率限制及物業估值保守等都起到關鍵的保護作用。
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