《大行報告》富瑞升信義光能(00968.HK)目標價至4.26元 業績勝預期
富瑞發報告指,信義光能(00968.HK)2023財年淨利潤達到41.87億元,按年增長9.6%,超出市場預期7.8%。其中,太陽能玻璃業務的銷售收入按年增長33.3%,達到235億元,銷量按年增長49.3%。儘管其毛利率按年下跌2.4個百分點至21.4%,但由於有嚴格的成本控制及需求增加下,下半年的毛利率較上半年和去年同期上升至26.4%,顯示出下半年度復甦勢頭強勁。富瑞給予「持有」的評級,目標價上調7%至4.26元。
富瑞提到,信義光能擴張步伐放緩,2023年末的總產能按年增長30%,較2022年的43%有所下降。公司在2023年上半年新增每日2,000噸產能,而原本預計可在下半年進一步增至每日5,000噸,但最終每日只新增4,000噸。信義光能計劃在2024年上半年在安徽和馬來西亞等新增生產線,屆時產能將可提升至每日32,200噸的水平。
此外,富瑞提到2.0毫米厚的太陽能玻璃已成爲主流,與3.2毫米厚玻璃的毛利率差距逐步收窄。又預計公司於2024年的資本開支將從2023年的98.95億元降至70億元。
富瑞認爲,未來兩年內,行業的產能增加將超過需求,信義光能加速自身產能擴張並優先考慮市場份額而非短期盈利,這將導致價格下降和多年盈利下滑。預計隨着着更多產能的投入,價格將進一步受壓。在行業完成整合前,利潤前景都可能較弱。
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