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《大行報告》匯豐研究下調中資券商股目標價 偏好中信建投証券(06066.HK)
匯豐研究發表報告指出,中資券商板塊獲利下跌是由於市場成交量下降(年初至今按年跌6%)、下調佣金及資產管理費,令行業估值造成壓力,表現符合該行預期。而中資券商股近期表現取決於資金流向,佣金削減帶來的負面影響已被消化,短期內競爭加劇,長遠發展仍需政策刺激與支持。 該行認為,中資券商股短期估值或小幅提升,主要由於中證監新任主席上場可能意味著未來更多的改革;中央匯金持續擴大ETF投資範圍帶來的利好因素;加強證券借貸監管或有助穩定市場。 然而,在中證監政策下,該行料中資券商的佣金或將大幅下調,加上成交低迷,估計將拖累經紀業務和研究收入。加上近期股市波動,或導致每家公司的投資收益有所調整。因此,該行對中資券商股去年第四季及今年首季的盈利預測維持保守態度,預期大中型券商去年盈利將下跌0.6%至9.5%。 此外,該行下調其覆蓋的中資券商股2023至2025年盈利預測,並下調目標價,當中偏好中信建投証券(06066.HK)。另將申萬宏源(06806.HK)的評級由「買入」下調至「持有」。 股份|評級|目標價(港元) 中信建投証券(06066.HK)|買入|9.7元→7.7元 申萬宏源(06806.HK)|買入→持有|2.2元→1.3元 東方證券(03958.HK)|買入|6元→4.7元
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