瑞銀:內地春節消費活動勝市場預期 料銀行股仍為防禦性標的
瑞銀表示,在近期的亞太路演中會見了80多位投資人。投資者儘管對中國宏觀經濟持謹慎態度,但對中國銀行業不太悲觀。投資者預計它們能實現淨利潤正增長並保持穩定的派息,這兩個關鍵因素支撐著對中國銀行業的投資情緒,儘管基本面承壓。對於A股,銀行倉位仍較低,投資者青睞銀行提供的較高股息率。一些投資者表示他們能接受低至4%的股息率,這意味著股價還能上漲。對於H股,多頭投資者繼續觀望,而對沖基金仍然積極佈局。
過去一個月(截至2月16日)MSCI中國銀行業指數上漲9.4%,跑贏MSCI中國指數3.4個百分點。根據截至2月14日的資料,南向持倉佔到中資銀行H股自由流通股的20.8%,持倉金額升幅最大的是招行(03968.HK)。
瑞銀大中華金融行業研究主管顏湄之指出,根據商務部以及文化和旅遊部,2024年春節期間重點零售和餐飲企業銷售額較2023年可比水準增長8.5%,國內旅遊消費較疫情前的2019年增長7.7%。春節期間的消費活動並不像市場預期的那麼弱。若節後經濟活動繼續復甦,中資銀行的投資者可能調倉至彈性更高的行業。在宏觀復甦可持續性不足的情況下,由於投資者倉位較低,A股銀行作為防禦性標的,仍有潛在上漲股銀行作為防禦性標的,仍有潛在上漲空間,而H股市場可能提供一些相對價值機會。
在大銀行中,顏湄之維持對農行(01288.HK)和中行(03988.HK)的買入評級,認為兩者的業績可能更佳。在A股地方性銀行中,預計增長穩健、受房地產行業和地方政府融資平台拖累較少的股票可能表現更好。中國銀行業需關注的三個主要催化劑包括房地產銷售和零售銷售趨勢,刺激政策,包括PSL或進一步降息等,及淨息差降幅,預計2024年按年降幅將達15至20個點子。
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