《大行報告》富瑞降新地(00016.HK)、恆地(00012.HK)、長實(01113.HK)及新世界(00017.HK)目標價 升信置(00083.HK)目標價
富瑞發表研究報告指,近日與中原地產創辦人施永青對話,並引述指中國宏觀不確定因素和地緣政治緊張局勢阻礙了香港發展,並反映在房地產估值上。不過,香港仍然處於有利地位,可以促進中國與世界之間的貿易和金融流通。施永青最看好住宅市場,其次為零售,最後是寫字樓,雖然住宅市場不能倖免於宏觀阻力,但剛性需求和新來港人士將提供更好的支撐。他預計樓價將從高峰回調約30%,並可能隨著利率見頂而回穩。
該行認為,恆地(00012.HK)和信置(00083.HK)的業績相對具有彈性,而土地收回亦可能為新地(00016.HK)2024財政年度帶來意外的上行空間。該行指,新地由於竣工量不足,12月中旬盈利或會疲軟,但去年整體銷售情況良好。由於股息未有定案,投資者仍然保持觀望態度。該行料股息將為1.15元(上年為1.25元)。至於新世界(00017.HK),該行則保持謹慎態度,因為利率上升影響新創建收入虧損,導致集團有持續盈利壓力。富瑞降新地、恆地、長實(01113.HK)及新世界目標價,惟對信置目標價作出上調。
另一方面,該行提到,領展(00823.HK)可望根據先前的指引實現預期目標,又認為九龍倉置業(01997.HK)的租金收入在去年下半年有下行風險,但財務成本會有所改善。該行對其長期增長前景存疑,但相對恆隆,仍更看好九龍倉置業,因為其利率正常化和租金減免至少可在短期內提振盈利。
富瑞發表研究報告, 對本港地產股投資評級及目標價表列如下:
股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元)
新鴻基地產(00016.HK) | 買入 | 88元 -> 86元
恆基地產(00012.HK) | 買入 | 26元 -> 25元
長實集團(01113.HK) | 持有 | 41元 -> 38元
新世界發展(00017.HK) | 持有 | 11元 -> 9元
信和置業(00083.HK) | 買入 | 9.5元 -> 9.6元
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