惠譽料今年首季內地鋼材及水泥產量將持續走低
惠譽評級表示,鑑於冬季建築活動放緩、2月春節假期以及政府將於3月初召開全國「兩會」,今年首季中國鋼材、水泥產量或將延續低位。隨著停產產能重啟及冬儲收尾,煉鋼原材料價格或將開始回落。這有望為鋼材利潤率的改善留出空間。另預期,鑑於水泥行業利潤率已處低位且水泥均價或將跟蹤原材料價格態勢,今年水泥利潤率將趨於穩定。
惠譽指出,去年第四季中國粗鋼產量按季下降10%以上,符合預期;去年累計粗鋼產量按年持平為10.2億噸,與政府的年產量指導意見一致。去年第四季產量因淡季需求疲弱而下降,一定程度上為均價提供支持。不過,鑑於焦煤價格因一系列煤礦事故而飆升,加之鐵礦石價格因生產商冬儲而居高不下,鋼材利潤率承壓。受此影響,去年第四季鐵礦石均價按季上漲9%、按年增長30%,焦煤均價按季上漲22%、按年增長5%。
此外,惠譽認為由於房地產投資持續疲弱遠遠抵銷基礎設施建設投資的增量,去年全年水泥產量下降4.5%至自2010年以來最低水平,均價下跌約20%。受此拖累,去年水泥行業利潤率或自2022年的7.2%收窄至3%至4%左右,與2015年行業低谷水平3.7%相當。
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