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《大行報告》花旗:內房1月銷售處6年低 遜預期
花旗發表報告指,根據克而瑞(CRIC),35間已上市內房企業上月銷售1,700億元人民幣,按年跌37%及按月跌38%,在去年農曆新年低基數下差於預期,扣除2020年2月農曆新年及新冠爆發因素影響,上月銷售為六年低。對比2020年2月的銷售為1,680億元人民幣。 該行指,上月銷售最多的內房企業為保利(600048.SH)、萬科(02202.HK)、招商蛇口(001979.SZ)、潤地(01109.HK)及中海外(00688.HK),但行業領先企業銷售低迷,保利、潤地及龍湖(00960.HK)銷售為2020年2月以來最低、中海外為2016年12月以來最差、萬科為2016年2月以來最差。該行預期相關內房今年首季銷售按年跌逾半,基於今年2月的農曆新年效應及去年3月的高基數。 花旗又預期,在連串刺激措施效應消退下,2月及3月內房股將表現波動,基於今年首季銷售疲弱、去年盈警及盈測下調、今年業績指引可能疲弱、二手樓成交表現及混合所有制內房融資略為改善等,該行認為目前行業估值合理,行業首選股為潤地及貝殼(02423.HK)。
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