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穆迪:經營環境困難限制本港發展商盈利復甦
評級機構穆迪表示,本港寫字樓和住宅前景疲弱,將限制本港發展商盈利復甦。今年本港11間受評級發展商EBITDA總額將按年持平。疲弱的宏觀經濟狀況、高利率和供應增加,導致住宅和寫字樓領域的市場狀況艱難。 穆迪預計,本港今年住宅價格將下跌5%至10%。供應增加、高利率和經濟復甦緩慢將抑制買家情緒。此外,供應量即將增加亦將限制樓價。住宅市場情緒疲弱將抑制發展商2024年的合約銷售,發展收入大多數將會下降。 穆迪表示,今年本港零售銷售增長將從高基數開始逐漸放緩。未來12至18個月,受評級公司在香港的零售租金收入總額將出現中低個位數增長。疫情過後,與內地的跨境旅遊於2023年2月恢復,零售額成長將在2023年大幅反彈後顯著放緩。香港消費者在華南地區的消費增加,以及內地遊客的消費意願溫和,將打擊本地消費,從而減緩香港零售業的復甦。 機構表示,企業擴張需求疲弱加上供應量高,拖累寫子樓租金。未來12至18個月,寫字樓租金收入總額將有中個位數降幅。在受評公司中,IFC Development Limited(A2穩定)、太古地產(01972.HK)(A2穩定)、香港置地控股(A3穩定)和冠君產業信託(02778.HK)(Baa1負面)在中環擁有大量寫字樓,而中環的寫字樓空置率較高,且新增供應將繼續對市場租金構成壓力。 穆迪指出,充滿挑戰的經營環境削弱發展商信貸指標和財務緩衝。未來12至18個月的總加權平均調整後淨債務/EBITDA為3.7倍至4.0倍,將與去年同期水平相若,但仍高於2018年社會動盪和疫情大流行前的水平。高利率將使公司的利息覆蓋率維持在中等水準。希慎興業(00014.HK)(Baa1負面)、冠君產業信託和新地(0016.HK)(A1負面)的負面展望,反映出它們的財務緩衝能力減弱。新地的負面展望亦跟隨標普最近將中國(A1負面)主權評級和香港政府評級的展望,從穩定調整為負面之後改變。
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