《大行報告》麥格理微升中海油(00883.HK)目標價至9元 現金流惡化維持「跑輸大市」評級
麥格理發表報告指出,中海油(00883.HK)繼將去年將資本開支預算提高至1,200億至1,300億人民幣後(較原預期的1,000億至1,100億元人民幣高出約20%),今年資本開支預算約為1,250億至1,350億元人民幣。
該行認為,中海油的資本開支超支風險不斷增加,考慮到公司管理層變動及離岸油田服務超級周期,相信公司去年支本開支超支並非一次性,今年資本開支或進一步增加。公司維持今年儲量替代率(RRR)超過130%水平,並計劃對中國海域勘探井數量增加5%至214個,顯示公司將繼續積極擴大油氣儲量和產量。
此外,該行將中海油去年資本開支預測提高6.6%至1,280億元人民幣。基於勘探和開發成本不變,對今明兩年資本開支預測提高1.5%及7.5%,至1,420億及1,670億元人民幣,以反映出更高的產量增長。該行認為,去年第四季布油每桶價格為82.8美元的情況下,加上去年實際資本開支,對中海油今明兩年產量預測上調1.5%及7.5%,導致2023至2025年每股盈利預測上調0%至5.6%。鑑於中海油現金流惡化,重申對其「跑輸大市」評級,目標價上調1%至9元。
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