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《大行報告》麥格理削李寧(02331.HK)目標價38%至26元 評級「跑贏大市」
麥格理髮表報告,爲闡述李寧(02331.HK)目前情況及進行對比,報告提供過往三個批發回撤企業事例供參考。即Esprit母企思捷環球(00330.HK)在2006至2013年情況;李寧2010至2015年情況;以及adidas在大中華區2020至2023年情況。 報告相信李寧目前情況,較過往Esprit和李寧過去情況爲佳,並需要再次投資來調整其品牌形象,因集團今年向低線城市滲透,將進一步擠壓利潤率。其中一大風險是需求評估不正確,過早經銷商加大發貨,亦導致渠道新一輪庫存累積,拖慢整體復甦。 麥格理預料,李寧去年下半年收入持平,主要是隨着直銷零售額增速回升,抵銷對批發銷售的更嚴格限制,庫存健康成爲業務的重中之重。該行相信,現時減少開支和對其他品牌投資已經爲時已晚,故料2023年下半年營運利潤率將收縮。 該行下調對李寧去年盈測,並降今明兩年每股盈測,其目標價則下調38%至26元,維持其評級爲「跑贏大市」,指現價計風險回報吸引。
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