《大行報告》建銀國際降青啤(00168.HK)目標價至50.5元 料上季表現疲弱
建銀國際發表研究報告指,對青啤(00168.HK)去年第四季的收入按年增幅預測由12%降至5%,料青島經典啤酒等中高端產品跑贏整體銷售,將出現高單位數增長。該行預期,第四季表現疲弱,是因為內地宏觀經濟低迷令消費不如預期,導致10月至11月啤酒產量按年有中單位數跌幅,而且今年農曆新年的日期較後,亦推遲去年第四季的備貨需求。
該行預期元旦假期的銷售勢頭緩慢,對今年初的消費復甦步伐保持謹慎,預計消費情緒將於次季回升,最終帶動集團2024財年收入增長約6%。該行認為,中國自去年9月起取消澳洲大麥進口限制將有利於鎖定大麥價格,導致2024財年毛利率按年增1個百分點至39.4%,料2024財年EBIT利潤率升1.2個百分點至14.9%。該行分別下調集團2023及24財年EBITDA預測1%和4%,目標價由61.5元降至50.5元,維持「中性」評級。
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