《大行報告》摩通:中資券商首選中信証券(06030.HK)及中國銀河(06881.HK) 降中金(03908.HK)評級至「中性」
摩根大通發表報告指,內地券商股去年跑贏滬深300及恆生國企指數,但相信今年上半年趨勢難以持續,雖然估值偏低,但費用收入仍然面對監管逆風,政策推動的利好作用尚未顯現,維持首選為中信証券(06030.HK)及中國銀河(06881.HK),至於中金公司(03908.HK)H股評級由「增持」降至「中性」。
該行認為,內地收緊證券承銷並對互惠基金費用持續改革,或會影響券商今年相關收入,不過自去年9月以來,市場成交量仍然合理,融資結餘處於正數,主要因為家庭資金分配從樓市轉移,機構投資者參與程度增加,以及槓桿上限放寬,估計當局仍然維持推動資本市場的政策取向,中期而言對券商有利。
該行指,目前政策取向及行業動力,將會支持二、三線券商整合,但龍頭公司的併購機會有限。在盈利前景並不吸引、派息比率缺乏驚喜下,今年上半年券商跑出的催化劑不多。該行對內地券商H股的最新評級及目標價表列如下:
股份|投資評級|目標價(港元)
中國銀河(06881.HK)|增持|6.4元→7.5元
中金公司(03908.HK)|增持→中性|22.8元→11.3元
招商證券(06099.HK)|中性|7.2元→7.3元
廣發証券(01776.HK)|中性|9.5元→8.1元
國泰君安(02611.HK)|增持|10.8元→12.6元
海通證券(06837.HK)|中性|5.2元→3.9元
HTSC(06886.HK)|增持|13.6元→13元
中信証券(06030.HK)|增持|17.7元→18.3元
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