大行評級|大摩:料美聯儲最快今年次季減息 予匯控及渣打“增持”評級
摩根士丹利發表報吿,指對香港及東盟地區銀行而言,今年重點關注利率走低將如何帶來影響。該行料美聯儲最快今年次季減息,但由於重新定價滯後,以及部分銀行的對沖選項,料淨息差最快明年(2025年)才見影響。投資者或希望估計至明年底淨息差去向,但該行認為具挑戰性,因利率走勢仍存在不確定性,銀行股股價將會受利率預期影響,因利率走低對銀行股帶來逆風。不過,報吿稱,更寬鬆的貨幣政策及經濟“軟着陸”將最終轉化成更快的貸款增長、市場相關收入增加,以及良性信貸風險產出,意味即使熊市情境下美息降至2.5釐,銀行的股本回報率(RoE)仍受支持。如果市場更相信銀行股2025年RoE將較過去十年更高,股價則有望錄正面反應。大摩稱,即使美息跌至2.5釐,料匯控仍可維持雙位數有形股本回報率(RoTE),並料匯控股息率達10.5%,這計及完成出售加拿大資產的特別息派發預期。報吿料匯控每年回購達80億美元,予匯控“增持”評級,目標價78.4港元。報吿料渣打集團可維持約10%的RoTE,不過,股息分派對渣打的支持力度相對匯控為弱,資本回報集中於回購。該行予渣打“增持”評級,目標價84.6港元。大摩最不偏好股份包括本港本地銀行股,如中銀香港及恒生,各予“與大市同步”評級,目標價分別24.1港元及90.5港元。
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