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《大行報告》花旗料今年本港樓價再跌一成 降港鐵(00066.HK)、新世界(00017.HK)及九倉(00004.HK)評級至「沽售」
花旗發表報告指,對今年香港房地產行業保持悲觀態度。該行認爲,今年香港發展商的股價表現將取決於在房地產市場長期疲弱的情況下,其自由現金流波動性及派息取態。該行認爲,自由現金流可見程度較高和具有穩定股息前景的公司將跑贏大市,而專注發展房屋而擁有大量資本開支計劃和負債比率高的公司應該會跑輸大市。 該行首選買入領展(00823.HK)、九龍倉置業(01997.HK)和置富產業信託(00778.HK),並將新世界發展(00017.HK)評級由「中性」降至「沽售」,目標價由13.85元降至9.2元,將九倉(00004.HK)評級評級由「買入」一舉降至「沽售」,目標價由24.5元降至19.8元,將港鐵(00066.HK)的評級由「買入」下調至「沽售」,目標價由47元降至26.5元。 花旗又表示,由於新樓價格下跌幅度大,加上仍處於高利率環境,預計明年本港總體樓價將再下跌一成。經過連續兩年一手銷售疲弱之後,相信發展商將面臨透過降價來提高銷售的現實。由於負利差(negative carry)及內地和香港經濟前景黯淡,料需求將會保持疲軟。
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