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《大行報告》大摩:主要內房商12月銷售仍弱 板塊需更多政策刺激以支持復甦
摩根士丹利發表報告指,根據內地市場數據公司克而瑞,三十間主要內房發展商2023年12月合約銷售按月升4%,但按年則跌49%,全年合約銷售跌37%。2023年12月份國營房企跑輸同業,主要受較高基數影響,半國營房企表現較佳。全年計,華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)及越秀地產(00123.HK)等國營企業,銷售有正面增長,表現跑出,主要受惠品牌效應、擁有較多可銷售的土地儲備、暫停施工的風險較低。部分違約的民營房企,銷售有超過50%跌幅。 該行認爲,當局需要推出更多刺激措施以支持樓市復甦,根據該行在長江三角洲及福建省的考察,2023年第四季在政策措施後,置業氣氛已迅速降溫,加上比較基數高、以及推盤數目減少下,預期明年首季住宅銷售仍然疲弱。在宏觀環境疲弱下,相信需要較多財政支持、以及需求方面的刺激措施,以支持樓市銷售持續復甦。
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