《大行報告》大摩降三大中資航空股目標價 下調今年盈測
摩根士丹利下調對三大中資航空股目標價,並維持對三隻航空股「與大市同步」評級,指出中國航空旅遊需求自10月底以來較預期疲弱,將導致第四季盈利疲弱。報告指,即使在第三季高峰期,三大航空股盈利均不及2019年疫前水平。展望明年盈利率壓力將繼續,尤其在淡季,基於經濟展望疲軟及家庭收入預期疲弱。
報告亦認為,年底機位恢復情況略遜預期,主要基於需求疲軟。考慮到收入展望疲弱、人民幣貶值及對東南亞與日本旅遊的負面情緒,需求復甦需時或較預期長,該行預期外地遊在2025年上半年全面恢復疫前水平,外地遊對三大中資航空公司具重要性。
該行下調對三大中資航空公司今年淨利潤預測,並下調對國航(00753.HK)及東航(00670.HK)明年及2025年盈利預測,但上調對南航(01055.HK)明年及2025年盈利預測,基於後者在國際貨運業務盈利強勁增長。該行亦表示,偏好春秋航空(601021.SH)及國泰(00293.HK)。
下表列出摩根士丹利對三大中資航空股H股最新目標價及投資評級:
股份│投資評級│目標價及目標價下調幅度
國航(00753.HK)│與大市同步│5.05元(-10.9%)
東航(00670.HK)│與大市同步│2.09元(-17.1%)
南航(01055.HK)│與大市同步│3.69元(-16.7%)
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