《大行報告》中金:近期紅海區域航運風險增 繞行添全球海運平均運距
中金髮表報告指,近期紅海區域航行風險增加,12月15日至16日,馬士基、赫伯羅特、MSC及達飛均表示暫停紅海海域的航線服務,其中赫伯羅特暫停至12月18日,其他船公司表示暫停至另行通知,MSC還表明部分航線的船舶將開始繞行好望角,而此前以色列船東以星已經開始繞行非洲航線。該行認爲上述事件表明紅海區域船舶航行風險增加,或對航運貿易路線及供應鏈安全帶來一定影響。
報告指,紅海及蘇伊士運河是全球重要的海運通道之一,繞行增加全球海運平均運距。根據Clarksons,全球約 10%的海運交易量通過蘇伊士運河運輸,若遠東-北歐航線從途徑蘇伊士運河改爲經好望角繞行,運距約增長30%。此外,巴拿馬運河持續擁堵或導致更多船舶經好望角繞行,從而進一步增加平均航運運距。
報告認爲,船舶繞行對集裝箱運輸影響或更大,或能部分吸收明年新交付運力,但影響程度取決於紅海區域船舶航行的不安全程度及持續時長。考慮到目前紅海事件尚在早期階段,後續航線演變取決於紅海區域航行風險水平,仍具有一定不確定性。該行維持所覆蓋的各標的盈利預測、評級及目標價保持不變。
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