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《大行報告》瑞銀降中銀香港(02388.HK)評級至「中性」 東亞(00023.HK)升至「買入」
瑞銀發表報告指,將中銀香港(02388.HK)評級由「買入」降至「中性」,東亞銀行(00023.HK)則由「中性」升至「買入」,並重申恆生銀行(00011.HK)「中性」評級(目標價見另表)。自去年3月以來,中國房地產市場的長期低迷和香港商業房地產風險上升,導致本地銀行股被向下重評逾40%。不過,該行認為,基於估值不高且派息率理想,目前的下行風險似乎有限。儘管如此,該行認為美聯儲潛在減息週期所帶來的淨息差逆風,不利於淨利潤增長前景。 該行估算,當項目的實際價值較賬面價值大幅折讓25%或以上時,有2,790億元的香港商業房地產銀行貸款可能面臨違約風險。銀行或會因針對香港商業不動產風險敞口增加撥備而承擔139億元的減值成本。不過,考慮到項目的實際價值與項目支持貸款之間的差距僅為17億元,而香港銀行去年稅前利潤約1,830億元,相信風險基本可控。因此,不良貸款風險因銀行而異,料風險集中在負債比率較高的中小型開發商。該行提到,明年香港本地銀行的信貸成本可能仍然較高,預計中國商業房地產風險仍將是最大的拖累因素。
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