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《大行報告》大摩下調內地物管股盈測及目標價
摩根士丹利發表報告指,內地物管股的盈利重置大致完成,但要等待樓市銷售回穩,行業氣氛才會改善,估計明年上半年樓市疲弱、下半年持平,全年一手樓銷量按年增長5%,竣工量減少5%。國營與私營物管公司的表現進一步分化,國營公司將會按進度擴充、半國營公司滯後,大部分私營公司的新增第三方在管面積將會減少。 該行預期2023年、2024年及2025年,行業盈利分別增長8%、11%及8%,在目前的輕資產模式,及部分公司有意提高派息比率下,物管股有重新評估的潛力,但需要等待樓市有明顯改善跡象,偏好華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)及保利物業(06049.HK),兩者2022年至2025年盈利複合年增長率分別26%及19%,盈利前景能見度高,而現金流健康。 大摩將其覆蓋物管股2023年、2024年及2025年的盈利預測,分別下調3%、6%及4%,以反映第三方在管面積擴張速度減慢,社區增值服務的增長放緩,以及利潤率恢復穩定。目標價則調整如下 : 股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元) 綠城服務(02869.HK) | 與大市同步 | 4.07元 → 3.46元 雅生活服務(03319.HK) | 減持 | 4.83元 → 3.02元 合景悠活(03913.HK) | 減持 | 0.42元 → 0.25元 萬物雲(02602.HK) | 增持 | 31.76元 → 27.12元 旭輝永升服務(01995.HK) | 與大市同步 | 4.01元 → 1.12元 華潤萬象生活(01209.HK) | 增持 | 51.24元 → 42.7元 保利物業(06049.HK) | 增持 | 51.87元 → 47.19元 寶龍商業(09909.HK) | 增持 | 4.87元 → 3.9元 中海物業(02669.HK) | 增持 | 11.62元 → 9.39元
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