惠譽:中國全球系統重要性銀行資本補充壓力加大
惠譽評級表示,金融穩定理事會(FSB)最新公布的全球系統重要性銀行(G-SIB)名單將令中國G-SIB的資本補充壓力加大——尤其是考慮到這些銀行為支持實體經濟、房地產開發商和地方政府融資工具可能導致風險加權資產(RWA)增速提升。
金融穩定理事會2023年11月27日發布的年度名單首次將交通銀行(03328.HK)(交通銀行,A/穩定)認定為G-SIB,並將中國農業銀行(01288.HK)(農業銀行,A/穩定)和中國建設銀行(00939.HK)(建設銀行,A/穩定)從第一組(1.0%附加資本要求)提升至第二組(1.5%附加資本要求)。作為新入選的G-SIB,交通銀行可以自入選之日起三年內達到最低總損失吸收能力(TLAC)要求。這與惠譽關於交通銀行隨著規模不斷增長,最終將入選G-SIB的預期一致。
惠譽估計,五家中國G-SIB需要發行的資本工具和其他TLAC合格高級債務到工具2025年1月和2028年1月分別將達1.7萬億元人民幣和6.3萬億元人民幣。該預估數據基於五家銀行截至2023年第三季度末的資本狀況及已公布但未發行的資本補充計劃,以及RWA增速為8%、淨利潤增速為5%、派息率為30%的假設。惠譽未將或可納入的存款保險基金考慮在內;若全部納入考慮,則2025年1月總體將無缺口,2028年1月資本缺口也將大幅縮小。
惠譽預計,這些銀行多數TLAC合格債務工具將在境內市場上發行——自2019年以來一直如此。如果發行人在境外市場上發行,惠譽可能會授予該等債務與各行長期發行人違約評級一致的評級,但具體將視發行條款和條件,或發行人對其TLAC合格高級債務工具相對於現有高級債務受償順序的進一步澄清而定。
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