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《大行報告》大摩降美團(03690.HK)評級至「與大市同步」 目標價削至120元
阿思達克 11-29 09:30
摩根士丹利發表報告指出,對美團-W(03690.HK)的態度逐漸審慎,主要由於消費情緒復甦慢於預期,為美團的核心本地商業收入復甦帶來不確定性。該行將美團目標價由180元削至120元,相當於明年核心市盈率16倍,對其2023至2030年非國際準則經營溢利預測下調2%至23%,評級由「增持」降至「與大市同步」。 該行認為,美團第三季業績符合預期,並宣布10億美元回購計劃。該行預期公司第四季核心本地商業收入按年增長25%至544億元人民幣,經營溢利升3%至74億元人民幣。由於新業務的經營虧損穩定在50億元人民幣水平,該行料公司第四季總收入按年增長21%至725億元人民幣,非國際準則經營溢利達24億元人民幣,相對於去年第四季為8.5億元人民幣。 外賣業務方面,該行認為美團仍然受宏觀疲弱影響,料其外賣業務第四季訂單量增長24%,意味著兩年年均複合增長率達16%(與首三季一致)。然而,該行料外賣業務收入增速放緩,按年增長18%。該行考慮到美團外賣平均訂單金額(AOV)及補貼的負面影響,估計第四季美團外賣業務的單位經濟(UE)將按年下跌,但部分被騎手成本效率和廣告變現情況改善所抵銷。該行預期宏觀疲弱將繼續影響外賣業務的訂單量增長步伐,因此將明年訂單量預測下調至16%,2025年降至14%,繼續估計公司2025年的外賣業務經營溢利達300億元人民幣水平。 該行預期美團的到店、酒店及旅遊業務仍然受競爭壓力影響,由於競爭和美團的防禦策略,料明年毛利具風險。此外,該行料美團第四季新業務收入按年增長9%,年初至今基本穩定的季度虧損為轉盈時間表帶來不確定性,料該業務將於2026年才能扭虧為盈。
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