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《大行報告》中金料港股明年上行空間10至15% 籲配置長期分紅、高端科技及行業出海等三主線
中金發表港股市場明年展望報告,港股的弱勢已延續近三年,今年初被寄予厚望的反彈也沒能持久,反而在三季度創出新低,這至少說明兩點:一方面,單純的低估值和高風險溢價可以促成反彈,但不是能持續或反轉的理由;另一方面,外部擾動的緩解如美債利率與地緣局勢同樣能夠促成反彈,但後勁還要看內生增長,2019年初和今年初的快速反彈後都轉為震蕩,也都與增長沒能及時「接棒」有關。 該行指展望2024年,建議謀定而後動、不疾而後速。中金指基於政策漸進推進和美債利率逐步回落的假設,認為港股處於逐步築底過程,明年基準情形上行空間10至15%。當前市場處於「政策底」,但過渡到情緒底和市場底仍需時間。今年底到明年初,在美債利率回落、中國政策發力和中美關係改善的共同推動下,出現修復式反彈並不難,更大的空間則有待更多「對症」政策。 基準情形下,該行預計港股2024年盈利增長4.5%(非金融4.7%、對應地產增速7%),較今年接近零增長溫和修復;估值在利率下行和風險溢價小幅改善下擴張7%(隱含美債3.9%、風險溢價從8.2%降至7.8%),對應指數空間10-15%。 該行預計年底或者明年第一、二季度政策預期密集、美債利率趨緩、地緣局勢緩和都有可能促成一波修復式反彈,此時港股彈性或大於A股,高彈性和利率敏感型行業或更受益,如生物科技、科技硬件、互聯網與新能源等。 在修復完成後和更多「對症」政策出台前,該行建議仍以「撿便宜」策略應對可能出現的大市調整,繼續沿用攻守兼備的「啞鈴」結構,配置長期分紅能力(電信、能源與公用事業)、高端科技升級(科技硬件、半導體與生物科技)和中端優勢行業的出海(工程機械、汽車與零部件、新能源與光伏、部分產品與品牌消費等)三條主線。 主題投資機會上,中金建議關注利率下行敏感、港股流動性和長期金融中心定位、高分紅和公司治理吸引力幾個方面。此外,該行亦列出海外中資股首選組合名單,包括騰訊(00700.HK)、中移動(00941.HK)、拼多多(PDD.US)、小米-W(01810.HK)、理想汽車-W(02015.HK)、快手-W(01024.HK)、新東方-S(09901.HK)、名創優品(09896.HK)、康方生物(09926.HK)、金山軟件(03888.HK)、珍酒李渡(06979.HK)、HTSC(06886.HK)、中海油服(02883.HK)及中興通訊(00763.HK)。(wl/cy) ~
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