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《大行報告》野村降本港今年GDP預測至3.2% 料「減辣」不會扭轉樓市基本面
日前財政司司長陳茂波表示,料本港今年GDP增長達3%以上,低於今年2月下旬《財政預算案》時所預估的介乎3.5%至5.5%。野村發表報告,降本港今明兩年本地生產總值(GDP)預測,由原先4%及2.6%,分別下調至3.2%及2.4%。 報告指初步數據顯示本港第三季GDP按年增長由前值1.5%回升至4.1%,但仍遠遜預期。經季調後,第三季GDP轉正按季回升0.1%,前值跌1.3%。報告稱,按年增幅反彈部分由於基數較低,本地需求穩定復甦。個人消費開支仍健康,政府開支下跌。私人投資在低基數下急升,庫存增長扭轉之前跌勢,對GDP增長帶來顯著正面貢獻。 報告續稱,本港9月零售銷售按年升13%仍屬健康,前值升13.7%。勞工市場仍健康,最新失業率維持於2.8%。整體而言,料未來數月私人消費仍具保持韌性,惟外圍需求仍疲弱。受累利率高企,私人投資仍面對逆風。住宅樓價跌穿去年所創低位,料房地產板塊續受壓,主因結構性因素及利率高企。 野村對明後兩年本港3個月HIBOR利率預測分別為4.25%及3.5%。在11月美聯儲會議後,該行美國團隊續相信美國已完成今輪加息周期。這將對本港金管局帶來持續喘息空間。不過,本地銀行仍有相當大的機會在未來進一步輕微上調P按息(最優惠利率)。在上月底的《施政報告》上,港府宣布樓市「減辣」措施,但相信這不會為本港樓市趨勢帶來根本性的改變,因結構性逆風仍然存在。
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