《大行報告》中金料內地後續新房銷售跌幅或有望收窄 但實質性修復仍需政策再打開空間
中金發表研究報告指,上周重點城市新推盤邊際明顯下行,帶動53個樣本城市新房銷售面積按周下跌約兩成,較10月周均基本走平,按年減仍維持在兩成左右。同時,15個樣本城市二手房銷售面積較10月週均增近兩成,按年增幅略收窄至21%。新房與二手房市場的溫差仍在持續。考慮到11月基數較低,該行預計後續新房銷售年跌幅或預計繼續收窄,但其實質修復仍需政策端進一步打開空間;同時重點城市二手房掛牌量增幅已趨於平緩,該行料存量房供給沖擊的逐步消化亦有望帶動房價跌勢趨緩,但趨勢能否延續和加強,仍有賴於需求端修復情況。
該行表示,9月以來兩市地產股表現持續承壓,認為主要是由於「政策效果觀察期間」銷售表現不如預期,以及投資者對企業信用風險憂慮加重。該行認為產業基本面和情緒面的改善需要供需兩端政策進一步發力,城中村改造政策進展亦是短期值得關注的股價催化劑。考慮到外部利好因素帶動海外中資股市場風偏修復,短期內房股或更具彈性。推薦基本面良好且兼具估價優勢的龍頭標的。
該行指認為,考慮到穩健型物企估值處於底層區域,而未來一至兩年淨利潤平均複合增長率仍有望落在20至30%區間,若港股整體資金面壓力有所緩釋、風險偏好有所上行,則相關企業或預期錄得相對彈性,繼續推薦萬物雲(02602.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)、和綠城服務(02869.HK)等。
同時,該行繼續推薦代建龍頭綠城管理(09979.HK),認為當前市場環境下其下行風險相對可控、而估值與股息殖利率相對於其未來一至兩年增長性而言具備吸引力。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.