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《大行報告》交銀國際:內地第九批集採結果符預期 龍頭藥企所受影響可控
醫藥股早市向上,中生製藥(01177.HK)及藥明生物(02269.HK)各升4.4%及4.8%,翰森(03692.HK)升3.3%。交銀國際發表報告表示,內地第九批全國集採於11月6日開標並公布擬中選結果,最終有41個品種採購成功,左炔諾孕酮片流標;262家企業的382個產品參與投標,205家企業的266個產品獲得擬中選資格,投標企業擬中選比例為78%。擬中選品種的平均價格降幅為58%,略高於此前批次的平均水平,預計每年可節約藥費開支182億元人民幣,進一步支持醫保談判藥品和創新藥的支付。內地醫保局表示,將確保全國患者於2024年3月用上本次集採降價後的中選產品。 該行指,對主要處方藥企的影響在5%以下:根據醫藥魔方樣本醫院數據,中生製藥(01177.HK)和翰森(03692.HK)納入品種的合計銷售貢獻在3-4%左右,恆瑞醫藥(600276.SH)在2-3%,其餘上市公司的收入敞口均在2%以下。具體來看,中生在8款競標產品中中標6款,平均價格降幅76%,各品種對公司收入的貢獻均較小。翰森在4款產品中中選2款,其中銷售貢獻在3-4%左右的雷貝拉唑未中選。科倫-B(06990.HK)、石藥(01093.HK)和上海醫藥(02607.HK)分別有4款(入圍5款)、1款(入圍4款)、4款(入圍6款),平均降價幅度在 70-80%左右。 交銀國際指:據其觀察和與行業調研,對未來集採有以下展望,第一是未來全國層面集採仍將以化學仿製藥為主,且集採規則或會有微調,但出現較大改變可能性較小。第二是隨著集採規則合理化、過往批次陸續納入銷量規模較大的產品、龍頭處方藥企積極佈局創新藥,該行預計後續批次集採對企業銷售的影響將逐步遞減,但仍需關注個別大品種的競爭格局變化情況。
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