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《大行報告》麥格理降海螺水泥(00914.HK)及潤泥(01313.HK)盈測及目標價 評級維持「跑贏大市」
麥格理發表研究報告指出,內地水泥價格在經歷7至8月份的下跌後,長三角地區的價格在9月起回升,而珠三角地區的價格則因颱風和供應壓力仍然滯後。該行模擬第三季長三角及珠三角地區水泥每噸水泥毛利(GP/t)分別為57及32元人民幣,按季跌23及84元人民幣。而第四季旺季或將淡靜,因該行留意到長三角及珠三角地區水泥價格自10月初以來,僅溫和上升各20至40元及20元人民幣。 然而,該行建議投資者可將目光投向今年以後,因預期中央政府將持續推出政策,直至水泥價格增長重回正軌。內地昨日(25日)宣布計劃發行1萬億元人民幣國債,並允許地方政府提前載入部分2024年債券額度,料可緩解地方政府的融資壓力和支持基建增長。 該行預期,內地水泥業不可能去產能,因主要參與者的資產負債表強勁。如海螺水泥(00914.HK)及潤泥(01313.HK)在2024/2025年推出管理層股權激勵計劃,相信可恢復盈利能力。該行削減海螺水泥及潤泥的2023至2025年盈利預測各14%至23%,及27%至54%,對兩股維持「跑贏大市」評級。將海螺水泥H股目標價由36.8元下調至31元,對潤泥目標價由4.8元降至2.8元。
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