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《大行報告》中金:中央增發萬億國債加槓桿 料水泥及管道板塊有望受益
就中央財政將在今年四季度增發2023年國債1萬億元人民幣(下同),增發國債全部通過轉移支付方式安排給地方,集中力量支持災後恢復重建和彌補防災減災救災短板,整體提升中國抵禦自然災害的能力。全國財政赤字將由3.88萬億元增至4.88萬億元,預計赤字率由3%提高到3.8%左右。中發表報告表示,政策積極信號釋放,推動內地建材板塊預期轉暖。 該行認爲對於內地建築建材板塊,此次特別國債傳遞了較爲積極的信號,在地方財政資金整體偏緊、地方實物量形成受阻的情況下,中央適當提升槓桿水平,有望推動市場對明年的需求預期從高度謹慎轉爲適當樂觀。 根據政策安排,增發國債今年擬安排使用5,000億元,結轉明年使用5,000億元。該行預測2023年全年廣義基建投資增速有望穩定在8%以上,且預計政策效果更多體現在2024年。從專項債、特別國債宣佈到實際需求落地往往存在兩個季度左右的傳導時滯,因而該行認爲此次政策對市場預期影響更大,而短期基本面所受影響較爲有限。 中金估計防水、水泥及管道板塊有望突出受益。本次增發國債着力「加快恢復重建」、「進一步提升我國防災減災救災能力」,從具體的投向領域來看,該行預計建材板塊主要受益的子品類爲傳統的基建水利三大件,第一是防水:防水需求有望受益於相關水利工程和建築災後的重建或修繕需求,核心受益標的包括東方雨虹(002271.SZ)、北新建材(000786.SZ) 。 第二是水泥:區域層面北方水泥龍頭冀東水泥(000401.SZ)相對受益,但海螺水泥(00914.HK)、華新水泥(06655.HK)在安全邊際和彈性之間或更加均衡。第三是管道:政策有望帶動水利、地下管廊、市政相關的工程需求,中國聯塑(02128.HK)、偉星新材(002372.SZ)有望從中受益。
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