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一文綜合券商於聯通(00762.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
聯通(00762.HK)昨(24日)收市後公布首三季業績後,今早(25日)股價受壓,最新報4.97元下滑近5.7%。中銀國際指聯通第三季純利按年升3.1%至49億人民幣,低於市場同業原預期53.7億人民幣。 瑞銀指聯通旗下工業互聯網第三季度收入僅增長9.2%首度跌穿雙位數(對比今年上半年增長16.3%),可能基於入賬問題,因聯通或在第二季把更多項目入賬,使其收入增長跑贏同業,其後發現在宏觀逆風下,壞賬可能成為問題。此外,公司亦可能對新項目較選擇性,集中於現金收取及可盈利能力。縱使季內工業收入放緩,但EBITDA率亦跌1.2個百分點至31%,或受更多壞賬撥備影響,同業中移動(00941.HK)及中電信(00728.HK)EBITDA率則保持穩定。該行調整對聯通今年至2025年盈利預測,H股目標價由8元降至7.3元,反映工業互聯網業務收入假設下調,維持「買入」評級。 聯通今年首三季營業收入按年升6.7%至2,816.93億元人民幣,服務收入按年升5.4%至2,525.2億元人民幣。產業互聯網業務收入606.86億元人民幣,佔服務收入比24%,按年提升1.8個百分點。期內EBITDA按年升2.7%至788.19億元人民幣,淨利潤為按年升10.1%至172.46億元人民幣。聯通首三季移動服務收入實現1,306.97億元人民幣按年增長2.6%,移動ARPU達到44.3元人民幣。 【純利遜預期 績後股價挫】 摩根士丹利指,聯通第三季業績增長轉弱並跑輸中移動((00941.HK)及中電信(00762.HK),聯通季度服務收入僅按年升3.5%,EBITDA按年跌0.2%,淨利潤按年升3.1%,但有關業績已大致被預期。該行亦指,聯通旗下工業互聯網收入增長顯著放緩至9%,雲服務收入增長則穩定在37%。該行維持聯通「增持」評級及目標價7元。 野村表示,相信聯通持續面對政府及企業客戶呆滯資訊科技預算,以及中移動及中電信競爭壓力,特別是在人工智能市場,影響聯通擴大市佔。此外,縱使管理層預測全年派息按年增長,但公司資本開支有可能因加強人工智能及雲領域基建投資而上升,限制派息能力。該行維持對聯通「中性」預測及目標價5.4元。 --------------------------------------------- 本網最新綜合4間券商對其投資評級及目標價: 券商│投資評級│目標價 中銀國際│買入│7.47元 瑞銀│買入│8元->7.3元 摩根士丹利│增持│7元 野村│中性│5.4元 券商│觀點 中銀國際│季績遜預期 瑞銀│第三季業績如預期疲弱 摩根士丹利│增長疲弱,大致符預期 野村│宏觀逆風導致第三季增長放緩 (fc/w) ~
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