一文綜合券商於中移動(00941.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
中移動(00941.HK)今早股價向下,現跌1.1%,報63.5港元。野村發表報告表示,中移動第三季服務收入按年升9.6%至2,124億元人民幣,優於該行原預期2,043億元人民幣的4%,主要是DICT(Data Technology、Information Technology、Communication Technology))業務收入增長帶動,但純利僅按年升3.9%,遜於市場預期約4%,主要受撥備損失較多所影響。但該行認為中移動估值吸引,重申「買入」評級及目標價75元。
公司上周五(20日)收市後公布今首三季業績,營運收入7,755.6億元人民幣按年增長7.2%,高於本網整合大摩及野村料介乎7,402.65億至7,702.39億人民幣。期內EBITDA按年升6.7%至2,685億人民幣。EBITDA利潤率34.6%。首三季純利則升7.1%至1,055.06億人民幣,略低於本網綜合3間券商料介乎1,062.04億至1,066.67億人民幣。每股基本盈利4.94元人民幣。
截至9月底止,中移動移動客戶總數達到9.9億戶,其中5G套餐客戶數達到7.5億戶,5G網絡客戶數達到4.25億戶;首三季度,流量業務保持穩定增長,手機上網流量按年增長16.2%;移動平均每月每戶收入(ARPU)錄51.2元人民幣,按年增長1%。政企市場方面,首三季度,集團DICT業務收入為866億人民幣,按年增長26.4%。
【純利略低預期 股價績後偏淡】
富瑞表示,中移動第三季服務收入及EBITDA均按年升9.6%,優於市場預期3%至4%,估計表現優於內地同業,公司第三季營運溢利按年升20%,季內純利僅按年升3.8%,相信是利息收入下跌15%(因內地利率較低)所致。該行認為中移動估值非常吸引,現價僅預測今年市盈率9.4倍,該行維持「買入」評級,將目標價由79.69元升至84.87元,重申其為中資電訊股首選。
瑞銀表示,中移動第三季純利錄293億元人民幣按年升3.8%,低於該行原預期2%,相信是非營運項目因素所致如財務收入及稅項成本因素,指公司雖然無提供新指引,但相信公司可如期推進早前給予的營運指引目標。該行維持中移動「買入」評級及目標價89元。
中銀國際表示,中移動第三季業績理想,受惠於移動業務ARPU較高(第三季按年升2.9%)的趨勢,因公司推進700MHz的5G頻譜網絡優化。該行重申對中移動「買入」評級及目標價83元。該行料中移動預測今明兩年股息回報各為7.5厘及8厘。
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下表列出9間券商對中移動投資評級、目標價及觀點:
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
瑞銀│買入│89元
中銀國際│買入│83元
華泰證券│買入│78元
中金│跑贏行業│85元
富瑞│買入│79.69元->84.87元
華泰証券│買入│78.73元->78元
摩根士丹利│增持│75元
摩根大通│增持│75元
野村│買入│75元
券商│觀點
瑞銀│基本面及前景鞏固
中銀國際│上季業績理想,移動業務ARPU較高
中金│DICT業務收入增長加快,服務收入增長勝預期
富瑞│第三季業績表現勝預期,估值吸引
華泰証券│業績穩步增長,政企市場發展動能充足
摩根士丹利│第三季收入及EBITDA增長勝預期
摩根大通│第三季收入及EBITDA增長強勁,預計股價將對強勁業績做出積極反應
野村│第三季收入增長勝預期,惟盈利表現差於預期
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