《大行報告》大華繼顯降內地三大航空股盈測及目標價 升南航(01055.HK)評級至「持有」
大華繼顯發表研究報告指出,9月23日的數據顯示,內地三大航空股中國國航(00753.HK)、南方航空(01055.HK)及東方航空(00670.HK)的載客量低於該行預期,相當於疫情前水平的88%至92%,並較8月23日的92%至93%有所回落。載客率亦較疫情前水平低3至6.8個百分點,顯示運力過剩。
該行認為,相關情況或繼續給機票價格帶來壓力,從而影響乘客收益率,並損害航空公司盈利復甦前景。而內地三大航空公司連續兩個月(8月23日及9月23日)的營運數據遜預期下,該行將國航、南航及東航的今年盈利預測作出下調,當中將國航盈測下調45%,對南航盈測下調19%,並料東航虧損將由原預期的4.35億元人民幣擴大至16.27億元人民幣;另維持對三大內地航空股2024至2025年的盈利預測不變。
此外,該行相信航空業的復甦符合市場預期,並已基本反映在股價上。當中,國航及東航的股價自4月底以來已累跌30.3%及20.1%,同期南航累跌36.4%跑輸,考慮到南航股價下跌後的復甦速度相對較快,以及該股估值下行空間較小,該行維持對行業的「減持」評級,但將南航評級由「沽售」上調至「持有」。而受人民幣貶值的不利影響,該行將國航、南航及東航的目標價由6.32、3.68及2.35元,下調至5.92、3.45及2.2元。
大華繼顯對內地三大航空股最新評級及目標價表列如下:
股份|評級|目標價(港元)
中國國航(00753.HK)|買入|6.32元→5.92元
南方航空(01055.HK)|沽售→持有|3.68元→3.45元
東方航空(00670.HK)|沽售|2.35元→2.2元
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