中信證券：FCEV銷量短暫遇冷，氫能產業成長趨勢未變
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中信證券研究 作者：祖國鵬
9月份FCEV銷量有所遇冷，但國內外產業政策持續疊加，產業應用也有新突破，歐盟碳邊境關税10月份正式實施後，綠氫的需求預期也有進一步回暖，氫能行業增長趨勢並未改變。中信證券認為FECV銷量波動是短期現象，綠氫項目的建設在不斷推進，行業高速發展的整體趨勢依然向好。
▍氫能板塊表現略勝指數一籌。
2023年10月月初至今（10月16日），中信燃料電池指數（CI005480）累計收益率為-1.64%，跑贏滬深300指數0.07%。在中信證券統計的34家業務與氫能相關的上市公司中，有14家公司取得正收益，升幅前三的公司分別為富瑞特裝/中自科技/致遠新能，升幅分別為12.91%/10.03% /9.45%
▍新近統計數據：FCEV9月產銷量環比變動+41.2%/-92.1%。
按照中汽協公佈的數據，2023年9月，我國燃料電池車產銷量分別為144/14輛，環比分別變動+41.2%/-92.1%；1-9月累計產銷量分別為2983/2878輛，同比分別變動+25.5% /+37.6%。從上險量數據來看，9月燃料電池商用車上險量為295輛，其中鄭州宇通上險143輛，位居第一，佔比48.5%。億華通位居燃料電池系統商中第一，單獨配套103台，佔比34.9%。1-9月，燃料電池系統CR3約為28.8%，排名前三的廠商為捷氫科技、億華通和國氫科技，佔比分別為11.9%/11.3%/5.6%。
▍大型項目電解槽招標有所推進。
2023年年初至今，國內有近40個綠氫項目正在推進，總投資規模近2800億元，綠氫產能規模達到110萬噸/年。中信證券跟蹤的樣本項目顯示，2023年10月，有2個項目披露進展，合計綠氫產能為4.61萬噸/年。年初至今（10月16日），處於招標/開工/簽約和備案階段的項目分別有4/6/17個，綠氫產能合計為15.85/34.22/36.90萬噸/年。在電解槽招標上，華能興安盟100萬千瓦風電制氫一體化示範項目啟動招標工作，電解槽招標或將開啟，潛在招標套數達到108套，規模達到540MW，或將改變下半年以來的低迷局面，有助於電解槽市場擴張。
▍風險因素：
關鍵技術進展緩慢；產業支持政策落地低於預期；氫能車產銷量不及預期。
▍投資策略：
儘管9月單月的燃料電池車銷量遇冷，但中央和地方政策對氫能支持力度不減，國外對氫能產業的規劃也在繼續擴張，加上歐盟碳邊境關税機制的正式實施，綠氫對工業領域的減碳作用更加重要，因此中信證券持續看好氫能行業長期前景，建議關注：1）綠氫製取環節；2）燃料電池車及相關零部件環節；3）儲運環節。
注：本文節選自中信證券研究部已於2023年10月17日發佈的《氫能行業10月月報-FCEV銷量短暫遇冷，不改產業成長趨勢》報吿，分析師：祖國鵬S1010512080004
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