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《大行報告》大摩降中資券商股股本回報預測 目標價全線下調
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,資本市場交易量和費率逆風爲領先券商鞏固市場份額創造更多空間,因爲服務客戶交易、風險管理和資本市場需求的增值將推動更多差異化。 該行表示,截至今年第三季,年初至今A股日均交易額爲8,910億元人民幣,較2022年平均下降4.2%。另一方面,企業盈利疲弱和市場波動導致今年前三季IPO數量按年減少超過30%,而中國證監會在8月下旬暫時收緊IPO節奏。因此,該行將今年日均交易額預測下調5%,並預計2024及2025財年將緩慢復甦,料今年IPO數量將下降約37%至3,700億元人民幣,並在明年有所回升。該行又預計,在競爭和監管推動下,中資券商將面臨涉及經紀傭金、保證金融資收益率及共同基金管理和交易費用等壓力。 該行預計,大部分券商的經紀收入下降幅度將超過2023財年市場ADT的8%降幅。不過,該行認爲,中金公司(03908.HK)將受到金融產品分銷費用所支持。該行將2023至25財年的券商股本回報率平均下調0.6、1.1、0.6個百分點,預期中信證券(06030.HK)、中金公司和東方財富(300059.SZ)將錄得較同業高的股本回報率,達到高單位數至低雙位數水平。 該行相信,中信證券和中金公司等規模較大的特許經營公司將更能抵禦行業逆風,在資本市場服務中提供更深層次的增值,並有更大空間改善成本基礎,故將更有能力鞏固市場佔有率。該行認爲,證監會明確規劃可能提高券商的槓桿上限,這是推動大型券商利用資產負債表發展衍生性商品業務時淨資產收益率進一步分化的重要催化劑。 大摩發表研究報告, 對中資券商股投資評級及目標價表列如下: 股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元) 中信證券(06030.HK) | 與大市同步 | 15.54元 -> 15.08元 HTSC(06886.HK) | 與大市同步 | 9.76元 -> 9.99元 中金公司(03908.HK) | 增持 | 20.8元 -> 17.01元 海通證券(06837.HK) | 減持 | 3.85元 -> 3.52元 廣發證券(01776.HK) | 與大市同步 | 10.3元 -> 9.53元 招商證券(06099.HK) | 與大市同步 | 7.15元 -> 6.7元 中國銀河(06881.HK) | 與大市同步 | 4.02元 -> 4元
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