《大行報告》中金料港交所(00388.HK)第三季盈利按年增22% 關注政策催化
中金發表研究報告指出,港交所(00388.hk)將於10月20日披露第三季業績,該行預計第三季收入按年增長13%,按季跌3%至48.7億元,剔除投資收益後主營業務收入按年跌2%,按季持平至38.4億元,盈利按年增長22%,按季跌5%至27.6億元。
現貨市場方面,該行料港交所第三季港股指數及換手率表現低迷、日均成交額(ADT)按年增長1%,按季跌4%至984億元,其中南下ADT按年增長32%,按季跌4%至290億元,佔港股14.7%,北上ADT按年增長10%,按季跌13%至1,061億元,佔A股7.1%。另外,該行預期港交所第三季投資收益按年升197%,按季跌13%至9.9億元,佔總收入20%,佔淨利潤36%。
該行指出,港交所估值及市場情緒具備左側特徵,若經濟政策持續發力帶動境外中資股估值修復、港交所作為港股優質beta有望受益,同時潛在的市場改革(人民幣櫃台南向通開放/促進港股流動性提升方案推出等)亦有望成為估值提振的重要催化;港交所持續深化市場改革,近期舉措包括刊發GEM上市改革諮詢、宣布於11月22日正式啟用FINI IPO結算平台、將沙特交易所納入認可證券交易所名單等。該行認為改革的持續推進將進一步強化港交所的中長期市場競爭力、鞏固香港離岸國際金融中心地位。
因下調市場成交量假設,該行下調對港交所今年盈利預測4%至119億元,基本維持明年盈利假設。維持「跑贏行業」及目標價384元。
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