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《大行報告》高盛:按「市場輪動模型」籲買入H股 料恆生科指年底或反彈
阿思達克 10-09 14:52
高盛發表報告指,雖然年初至今市場環境充滿挑戰,但中國A股及美國ADR回報依然顯著,美國ADR及上證指數年內分別上漲5%及1%,但深交所創業板及恆指卻下跌15%和12%,顯示出資本配置的重要性。 高盛指出,離岸股票對全球地緣政治和流動性因素的反應更靈敏,而在岸股票往往與國內政策和週期性有更好關聯,該行研究自上而下框架中經常使用的30個宏觀和市場因素後建立「市場輪動模型」,用於事前預測A股和H股之間的回報差異。 根據模型,該行預測H股在未來三個月內或領先A股約5個百分點,而根據期權市場定價預測H股跑贏A股的概率為約70%,投資策略是買入H股及恆生科技指數,以迎接年底的潛在反彈;而A股中小盤股則預期會相對落後。 報告另預期未來三個月MSCI中國指數將有9%回報(上行空間)。
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